Two teams that appear to have rock-solid defenses will face off in Denver with the Commanders in town to take on the Broncos on Sunday afternoon. Despite losing as a home favorite vs. the Raiders in Week 1, Denver comes in as a 3.5-point favorite, while the game has the lowest total of the week in the NFL odds at 38.5 points.
Each offense is expected to take a step forward this season with Sean Payton in to fix Russell Wilson, while Washington’s Eric Bieniemy is out to prove he’s more than just Andy Reid’s right-hand man. Each failed to get off to a strong start in Week 1, with the teams combining for just 36 points despite facing poorly-regarded defenses.
Let’s see how the teams match up for their Week 2 faceoff. Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Commanders vs. Broncos on September 17.
Commanders vs Broncos odds
Commanders vs Broncos predictions
It was a rough look for Eric Bieniemy in his first game as offensive coordinator of the Commanders. The team managed just 3.8 yards per play, which was bad enough for 27th on the week. Making matters worse is that it happened at home vs. probably the worst team in the league in the Arizona Cardinals.
Perhaps most concerning was the play of the offensive line. Quarterback Sam Howell didn’t have room to breathe and was sacked six times.
On the defensive side, however, Washington did what they were supposed to do and more. They completely shut down the Cardinals, limiting their offense to just three field goals while only allowing two trips to the red zone.
It was a similar story for the Broncos in their season opener against the Raiders. They managed to score just 16 points against a Las Vegas defense that was among the worst in the NFL last season in many key categories. Improvement is expected for Denver’s offense after last season’s embarrassment, but if Week 1 is any indication, it could take some time.
Denver’s defense did its job though. They held big playmakers Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs in check and allowed just 17 points. That strong defensive play is a carryover from last season, where Denver ranked tied for fourth in yards per play allowed.
If a few other defensive strengths for both teams carry over, points could be hard to come by. Last season, these teams ranked first and second, respectively, in opponent third down conversion percentage, while each was in the Top 10 in opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage. As a result, it could be a big day for kickers.
This one is a no-brainer for me — I’m on the Under. The strength of each team is clearly its defense, while these offenses are still stuck in the mud.
While Russell Wilson didn’t necessarily look bad in Week 1, he also didn’t inspire much confidence that he’s back to his old self. As for Howell, he still has a long way to go to prove he’s “the guy,” and demonstrating that in Denver vs. a tough defense is too tall of a task.
My best bet: Under 38.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
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Commanders vs Broncos same-game parlay
Under 38.5Washington +7.5 Alt. Spread
+160 at FanDuel
Let’s pair that Under with a big fat cushion for Washington, bringing them through some key numbers, up to +7.5. This should be one of the lower scoring games of the week, meaning either team pulling away is unlikely.
For what it’s worth, going back to the start of last season, the Broncos have just one win by more than seven points. While I don’t expect much from Washington’s offense, I think their defense keeps this game within reach.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Commanders vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis
Both the spread and total are on the move. Denver originally opened at -4 but has been bet down to -3.5, while the total has plummeted from 41 to 38.5.
The Broncos have been an awful bet as a favorite since acquiring Wilson, posting a 1-8 ATS record. Even before Wilson joined the team they’ve been a bad bet as a favorite, going 3-13 ATS in their last 18 as chalk, while also going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite.
As for this low total, there are a few good reasons why it’s been bet down. Denver has stayed under this number in 11 games since the start of last season, while Washington has gone beneath it 12 times.
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